A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
